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Monthly Archives: March 2015

Newsletter Trial Coming — just as things become interesting

The Greedometers suggest the S&P500 is on the verge of some very interesting times. We are fairly early in the 10th Greedometer sequence. The next 3 weeks will likely winnow the number of models down to 1.  The objective is to arrive at a crash launch point with the crash largely characterized (size, speed, approximate location of interim SPX inflection points).   There will […] Read the rest of this entry »

Who let the doves out?

  The Fed’s FOMC statement showed no immediate threat of Fed tightening, per my expectations. Here are the interesting bits….     There’s no way the Fed will be able to begin tightening this year and probably not next year either. Party on….     But for how long?    

Buybacks and insider trading update

Factset published Q4 2014 S&P500 buyback data this morning. At $125.8B it was exactly where I forecast (I estimated $125B).  I’m estimating share buybacks will soar to $160B in Q1 and $170B in Q2 — to be some of the highest buybacks ever. Here’s the updated chart for S&P500 share buybacks, insider trading, and the SPX.   While corporate managers desperately keep wildly overinflated […] Read the rest of this entry »

Earnings & Economic Update

U.S. economy on the verge of stalling: ECRI’s latest WLI is a -4.0  . The Atlanta Fed GDP data is presenting a 0.6% Q1 GDP growth picture. Retail sales are contracting since November at a pace almost never seen outside of recession. That’s not all attributable to cold weather! I expect Q1 real GDP growth to be around 1%, and the same for Q2. […] Read the rest of this entry »