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Monthly Archives: November 2014

How do you use the Conference Board LEI?

Here’s the Conference Board LEI … It is quoted a lot by economists and investors. I don’t use it because I can’t get much out of it. The CB LEI did a good job at identifying the entry point of the Great Recession. But not the recession before that, nor the 2 quarters of contraction seen in Q1 2011 and Q1 2014.   It […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q4 GDP slowing

This is a cut/paste from the Greedometer newsletter 2 days ago…     This morning the BEA provided its second estimate of Q3 real GDP growth. It was increased from 3.5% to 3.9%.  I was expecting it to remain largely the same at 3.4-3.6%.  The BEA’s third estimate will be released late next month and likely be raised slightly more or stay the same. […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Update: Something BIG is coming

I am working on something big. When it’s nailed down, I’ll let you know. Happy Thanksgiving.  

Presidential election cycle: irrelevant. Part 2.

In Part 1 we examined how irrelevant the U.S. Presidential election cycle was in 2011 — a year 3 in the 4-year cycle. The context being 2015 is a year 3 in the presidential election cycle so we should therefore expect a great year for the stock market.  My position:  the U.S. Presidential election cycle was irrelevant in 2011 and in 2007. Having examined […] Read the rest of this entry »

Presidential election cycle: irrelevant. Part 1.

From time to time people bring up the importance of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle in its relationship to stock market performance.  I do not deny the statistical data nor the implication that 2015 should be a strong year for risk assets — based on it being a year 3 in an election cycle. That said, I assert the relationship / phenomenon is a 2nd […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB: full QE comes in Q1

Vitor Constancio -ECB VP-  told the FT the ECB could begin full QE in Q1.  (How’s that for acronym use?)  Jokes aside, this means the ECB will not announce full QE at next week’s regularly scheduled meeting. Judging by the plan to monitor the economy in Q1 before implementing full QE, the blessed event may not be announced until March. That’s a long way […] Read the rest of this entry »

Axe Dodging

It all comes down to this: you either want to know there’s a guy walking behind you swinging an axe or you don’t.  If you know the guy is there are you going to carry on as if he is not?  Are you going to deny he is there?  People keep telling you that some dude keeps walking up behind you swinging an axe, […] Read the rest of this entry »

Blog comments that don’t make it

Not all blog comments are suitable for posting. I’m happy to post comments that take a differing view from mine, so long as they substantiate their position and are polite.  The upshot of some of the blog comments not approved for posting is more of the same: I’m getting pounded I’m wrong I’m a fraud (one of my favorites) stock markets are going to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Boring and green

For what it’s worth, yesterday was actually a boring and mildly green day (and I took no action).  You need a magnifying glass to see the green, but it’s there. My large SPX short was protected from damaging client portfolios courtesy of the safe havens that were supported in yesterday’s fading sugar rush in risk assets.  How about that?    

Adapt or die.

There has been a wall of email and blog comments and questions. It’s going to be a while to go through it. This might help…. I’m not selling my SPX short.  Not yet.  The SPX is wildly overbought on a short term basis and will pull back (look at RSI, MACD and ADX). Plus advisor sentiment is going to go berserk (bulls/bears at 4+) […] Read the rest of this entry »