Monthly Archives: October 2014
The BoJ has expanded its already mammoth QE program from 60-70T yen/year ($537-630B) to 80T yen/year — to purchase more JGBs. In fact, the BoJ is going to buy up to 6.6T yen/month in JGBs ($60B USD/month.). To finance the gaping budget deficit 5.5T yen/month is needed. So yes, this is textbook monetization. FYI:the Fed’s QE3 program was initially $40B/month before it had to […] Read the rest of this entry
The previous SPX weekly close peak was 2010. A 1% bracket on that is 1990-2030. The previous intraday SPX peak was 2019. SPX futures are at 2012 now (6:30am). It appears the cash SPX will re-test 2019 today. I’m not short yet. But I will be in the next 1-2 trading days. Very short. Ding.
The BEA released its first kick at the can in providing an estimate of real GDP growth in Q3. Unsurprisingly, their estimate was 3.5% — surpassing consensus estimates of 3%. Nice. They’ll lower this 3.5% estimate to something in the 2s a few years from now, but for the next few months, the BEA will likely raise the estimate — especially the 3rd estimate. […] Read the rest of this entry
I was on BNN live from the Nasdaq this morning. It went well. There were some glitches. The bell I brought (no one rings a bell at the top) broke. So much for entertainment. The audio connection had a terrible delay. Apologies. Here is the chart they were supposed to put up: We were also going to talk about how all these -8 […] Read the rest of this entry
These are the charts I’m going to be talking about on Thursday morning (live interview from the Nasdaq market site — for Canada’s financial news network BNN). If a U.S. network invites me to do a live interview while I’m there, I’ll let you know. The U.S. financial news networks seem to be fearfull about discussing the mechanics of stock market crashes unless it […] Read the rest of this entry
I have a live interview from the Nasdaq this Thursday morning. I’ll post a link to the video when it’s available. Guess what I’m going to say. I may bring a bell with me….
Welcome to the last week of October. The crash launch point. Newsletter subscribers and asset management clients have been receiving detailed updates to the S&P500 forecast. Since July, the base case scenario was for the S&P500 to re-test the previous weekly close peak within 1-1.5% during the last week of October. This would be a launch point for a crash of 65-70% that would […] Read the rest of this entry
To no surprise, the ECB bank stress test shows the eurozone financial system is sound. If you’re hoping for an ECB full QE program soon, you’re not going to like this. The ECB released the results of their bank stress test this morning. Based on the analysis at the end of 2013: 25 banks out of 130 failed. €22T of bank assets were examined. […] Read the rest of this entry