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Monthly Archives: September 2014

German Unwanted Pregnancy

ECB President Draghi is making the press asking for Greek and Cypriot bank loans (junk rated) to be bundled and bought by the ECB.  Germany, you are already more than a little bit pregnant with European bonds (your share of the ECB’s current 2T euro balance sheet). Your unwanted pregnancy is only going to develop further. Much much further if the ECB gets what […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted

It’s up.  

Seismic mutual fund money movement

There is approximately $6T being managed by the top 50 U.S. Mutual Fund cos.  Half of this is with the top 3 alone: Fidelity, Vanguard, and American Funds.  Franklin Templeton and T Rowe Price form a respectable but small 2nd tier. There’s a 3rd tier: Columbia, Dodge & Cox, Oppenheimer, John Hancock, PIMCO, Invesco, Blackrock, Janus, American Century, MFS, Lord Abbett, and ING.  Then […] Read the rest of this entry »

SPX slippery slope update. Offer.

  SPX (S&P500) futures are seeing resistance at 1977 after bouncing off support at 1959. Both of these numbers were referenced in my blog post last week link here .  There are 2 weeks before earnings season starts. That’s 2 weeks to complete this refreshing dip. I’ve still got my bathing suit on. Come on in, the water’s fine. But don’t stay too long (I […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA follow up: overstating growth

  People like charts…. BEA Q3 GDP data over the past 14 years: In years where there was no recession: The current estimate (years later) was an average of 0.52% lower than their 1st. The current estimate (years later) was an average of 1.05% lower than their 3rd. The 3rd estimate was off by more, and more overstated.  1.05% may not seem like much, […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA Q2 GDP 3rd try. Who cares?

The BEA announced their 3rd estimate of Q2 GDP at: 4.6%  – right at consensus.  The previous estimate was 4.2%. The BEA maintains its 3rd estimate is based on a more complete data set and therefore implies this is the one you should put your faith in (vs their 1st and 2nd estimates). I have not studied BEA Q2 GDP estimates -but I’m going […] Read the rest of this entry »

Technical target practice

Has your trading over the past few years not worked as well as it previously did?  Fibonacci, Elliott Wave, DeMark, and other technical trading systems are working less well than they previously did. If you’re using a price targeting system, you’ve probably been repeatedly trampled by algo-bots over the past few years. These bots are drawn to popular technical trading support and resistance prices, then […] Read the rest of this entry »

Institutional Investor: Update

  Much of this year has been spent and will be spent preparing to launch services for institutional investors in Q1 next year. Both a market timing letter and a hedge fund are  being pursed (thank you for the interest).  As a means of building credibility (to make it easier for you to make a case to your investment committee), I have been sharing […] Read the rest of this entry »

There will be pain.

  Leverage is how some investment managers earn their keep since leveraged Beta can appear like Alpha.  It’s a wonderful thing.  Until it’s not.  A leveraged investment pro will be susceptible to a record that looks like this: win a lot, win a lot, win a lot….. lose it all.  That’s the obvious lesson from the S&P500 over the past 15 years –as evidenced […] Read the rest of this entry »

New all-time high in Margin Debt

  This story tells itself. For those new to this story, it goes like this… NYSE margin debt previously reached new all-time highs a few months before the S&P500 peaked and initiated collapsing.  Mind you, that time lag has been tightening to the point where margin debt will likely peak the same month as the S&P500. I will not be surprised to see M1-corrected […] Read the rest of this entry »