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Monthly Archives: August 2014

Q2 GDP: 2nd kick at the can

The BEA’s 2nd kick at Q2 real GDP growth is +4.11%. A small bump from their previous  estimate.  Not much change was expected. Note, here are the BEAs GDP estimates: Q2: $15.9943B Q1: $15.8317B Q4 2013: $15916.2B Hence the past 2 quarters saw real GDP growth of -2.12% (Q1) and +4.11% (Q2).  Yet the BEA’s headline is -2.1% and +4.2%. They are apparently happy to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Opportunity Pounds!

The investment world is going to go through a crisis and major change in the coming 1-2 years.  What remains to be seen is whether you’ll be seen as a hero or a cabbage — by your clients and your management. I am of course referring to those that fit into any of these boxes: Mutual Fund /ETF companies Hedge Funds Bank Common Trust […] Read the rest of this entry »

Euphoria, where art thou?

  One of the current arguments made by long-always-and-only equity market players is euphoria is absent. Therefore this equity bull market has more to run.  Gulp.  Sorry, I had to hold down some vomit…. I’m better now. How about these choices points. This year has seen: US stock market at all time high European stock markets at / near all time highs Canadian stock […] Read the rest of this entry »

Is ECB QE already priced-in?

  Spain (2.1%) and Italy (2.4%) have nearly identical 1oyr yields to the U.S Tnote (2.4%):       With record-low yields in Italy and Spain –isn’t ECB QE already priced-in?   Oh, and for reference purposes, the 10yr yields on France (1.27%) and Germany (0.93%):   Plus peripheral-core european bond yield spreads are near record lows — while the short end is all […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted

It’s up.    

Consumer Confidence Peak

Consumer confidence from The Conference Board shows the U.S. consumer “roared back” in August.  Here’s a chart that will help with the next few points…. Consumer confidence is the highest its been in years — but still below the long term mean. The last time it was higher was …. October 2007 (previous major crash initiation point). A high consumer confidence reading combined with […] Read the rest of this entry »

Margin Debt: bubble bubble bubble bubble

The NYSE margin debt figures for July were released. Corrected for M1 money supply, it says July continued to see very nearly the highest leverage levels (via margin) ever.  More in the newsletter tomorrow.      

Chart Update: Share Buybacks, Insider Selling, S&P500.

Here’s an update to my chart on share buybacks, insider selling, and the S&P500. Chart data courtesy of Vickers, Factset, and yours truly. Some estimating has been done for Q3 & Q4 (obviously). See if you see a pattern….     Nope.  Nothing to see here….    

Fund Managers: 2 month free forecast

  Hello Fund Managers I know there are several of you following this.  This is an invitation. I will provide an S&P500 forecast for the next 2 months because I am convinced the forecast will be sufficiently close to what transpires that you will want to pursue a discussion about securing further insight.  My forecast will do all the convincing needed. Call my office […] Read the rest of this entry »

Attention Fund Managers

  Things are on the verge of becoming very interesting.  This Greedometer sequence (the 9th) is starting to mature very nicely. New subscriptions to the retail Greedometer newsletter are no longer offered so that I may focus on building an institutional advisory practice.  If you are a sovereign wealth fund manager, endowment manager, hedge fund manager, mutual fund manager, or bank common trust fund […] Read the rest of this entry »