Monthly Archives: July 2014
Progress is being made on an institutional advisory business. If you are interested in working with a small group of analysts and are willing to relocate to the Raleigh NC area, this may be of interest. Hedge fund industry experience and a formal background in engineering or math will help. Please send a cover letter summarizing your experience using the contact form. Brevity […] Read the rest of this entry
In an obvious effort to get Morgan Stanley’s earnings news posted as quickly as possible, CNBC posted an article with the facts left as XX and XXX placeholders. Have a good day, folks….
Here’s a chart on the JGB 10yr yield…. Never mind that you need a magnifying glass to see the yield (0.54%!!), I want to draw your attention to the fact yields have steadily dropped this year. This is not what a sovereign bond would be doing if the economy were strengthening with any sort of durability. And what about that yield? It says […] Read the rest of this entry
Having completed several rounds of extreme/desperate monetary policy actions (let’s face it, printing $4T in new money is desperate), the Fed will likely not launch another round of QE unless the sky is falling — and even then it will be a hard sell. Each round of policy steroids inflated /expanded a stock market bubble -to various levels of success. Inflation has been slow to […] Read the rest of this entry
The S&P500 has been parked above the 200-day moving average (200dma) for 20 months in a row. Amazing. The last time something similar happened was an 18-month stretch in January 1995 – July 1996, courtesy of the tech bubble. At this point in time, it would merely take a 7.4% dip to visit the 200dma (1973 to 1834). We have not seen a dip […] Read the rest of this entry
The BLS Household Survey report showed 840,000 new part time jobs last month. That’s huge. This helps explain the divergence between an expected low jobs number (say 160,000-180,000), and what was reported (288,000). These 840,000 new part time jobs likely didn’t earn enough to pay much in payroll tax.
The BLS released its June employment report. The headline: 288,000 new jobs, U3 rate drops to 6.1%. A 288,000 new jobs number does not align well at all with U.S. Treasury payroll receipts data. Payroll receipts for June were markedly lower than they were for May. Were they all at such low pay rates that very little income tax was withheld?