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Monthly Archives: April 2014

Greedometer Newsletter posted

It’s up.

Here’s what the BEA guessed about Q1 GDP in 2011 (a wild overestimate)

Since the Greedometer (& mini Greedometer) sequence of 2014 is resembling that of 2011, I thought it would be helpful to post the BEA’s estimates for Q1 GDP in 2011  –and their latest estimate (3 years later –when no one cares): Wow!   They overestimated Q1 GDP by a whopping 3.1% on their first estimate. As terrible as that was, their more complete data-driven […] Read the rest of this entry »

2014 looks like 2007 (& 2011) so far

The first half of 2007 shared several key attributes with the first half of 2011 — and this year too. 2007 is well known for being the location for the topping-out of a secular stock market peak and initiation of an epic crash. 2011 doesn’t get as much respect. The same thing was happening -at a far faster pace than 2007- but because the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Newsletter uploaded

It’s up.

US Treasury market sniffs economic weakness

Despite today’s Fed Beige Book economic report showing a considerably improved U.S. economy, the Treasury market seems to be sniffing out a soft patch. You should also note that Q1 is a traditionally weak time of year for U.S. Treasurys. It’s usually party season for stocks and grumpy season for U.S. Treasurys. Hmmm. Methinks the bond market is sniffing out an economic soft patch […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

In this week’s letter, I explain why the risk-on rally of yesterday and this morning was a dead cat bounce.  

Greedometer Newsletter posted

It’s up.  

The rats are jumping ship. Several new all-time records have now been set.

Here’s the data: Last week saw insiders panic selling their own personal shares at roughly 6.5 shares sold vs bought.  Just a single week panic (selling at a new S&P500 all-time peak)?   OK. Here’s some more data… 6.9 shares sold vs bought over the past 7 weeks.  A new all-time panic sell-fest for a 7-week stretch. Still not convinced? OK… 6.8 shares sold […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted

It’s up.