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Monthly Archives: January 2014

Misdiagnosis from Wall St Talking Heads. Not all dips are the same.

  I continue to be amazed at the propensity of  Wall St analysts, financial pundits, and talking heads to completely misdiagnose the big picture, and fail to properly characterize  previous dips.  Many continue to suggest that a 5% or 10% drop in the S&P500 would be much ado about nothing since we saw similarly sized dips in 2012 and 2013 that were followed by the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted

  What’s inside:                    

Rats Jumping Ship — a new record for insider selling

  2014 is in its infancy, but so far insiders have been dumping their shares in a panic. Insider selling (ratio of sells/buys) over the past 3 weeks has averaged 8.9 –> the highest in the past 10 years and probably a new all-time record. Insider selling over the past 4 weeks has averaged 7.7 –> the highest in the past 10 years and […] Read the rest of this entry »

Economist vs. Engineer (why all these crashes are related)

  One of my most respected sources of insight -Dave Rosenberg- is claiming the U.S. economy is mid-way through a business cycle. He’s looking for exports and capital spending to carry things from here.  Dave has forgotten more about economics than I’ll ever know (I’m an engineer, he’s an economist).  But I have to disagree with his currently espoused view –> that we’re part […] Read the rest of this entry »

Some air being let out today

An excerpt from this week’s Greedometer Newsletter…. In addition to the U.S. stock market being more fraught with risk that in 2000 and 2007, there’s a bit of a 1997-1998 feel to the big picture. By that I’m referring to emerging market stresses building up. In 1997-98 it was a spreading Asian currency crisis that clocked the U.S. stock market for its largest, second […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fun things in this week’s Greedometer Newsletter

  The newsletter comes out this afternoon. It was delayed 1 day because of a delay in data arriving….              

Insiders are panic selling

  Wow!  Insiders were dumping their personal shares last week at over 9 shares sold vs bought.  The previous week saw selling at over 8:1. The average for the past two weeks has been 8.7:1 !!   I cannot find a 2-week average that high in nearly 10 years of insider selling data.  Late January-early February 2011 comes close (and we know how 2011 […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted

In this week’s letter…. NFIB:   FedSpeak:   The U.S. labor force in secular decline:   Earnings Sandbagging:      

QE: hero or bum?

  Quantitative Easing (QE) has played a major role in stopping stock market collapses -at various stages of maturity- since 2009. As such, the policy -in a personified sense- might be labelled a hero. Yet if the Fed is going to be successful in unwinding QE3 this year, QE is probably going to turn into a bum. The ending of QE1 saw the stock […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fun things in this week’s Greedometer newsletter….

  In this week’s letter, we bid farewell to 2013, and start pouring over some of the latest data.   Insiders dumped more of their personal shares than ever –> eclipsing previous selling sprees in the months prior to the 2007 crash and 2000 crash.   Euphoria sets a new all-time high, eclipsing 2007 and 2000.   A really big picture…     2013 […] Read the rest of this entry »