Monthly Archives: December 2013
No one rings a bell at stock market tops. However… The Greedometer strategic risk algorithm has registered the highest sustained readings over the past 3 months (15 year period of data). This week will likely see the highest reading ever. The best the Greedometer can do is identify periods of extreme risk to the S&P500 within approximately 3-months. The mini Greedometer tactical risk algorithm registered […] Read the rest of this entry
In yet another sign the stock market is wildly over-priced, NYSE margin debt (borrowing money “on margin” to make leveraged bets) reached a new all-time high in November. The NYSE released the margin debt data for November a few hours ago. Here’s the chart. (note: the data is corrected for the M1 money supply) Nope. No bubble here.
The BEA raised its estimate of Q3 GDP to 4.1% this morning. Including this third estimate, here’s a look back at the past 14 years of BEA data (for Q3 estimates). Each year shows the first, second, third estimates, and the most recent –typically a few years after the fact. The 4th data point in each year saw GDP lowered vs the 1st estimate […] Read the rest of this entry
I read an interesting article recently about how elevated short interest is frequently fuel for a short covering rally. The context was that as of now (Dec 19 2013) there are high levels of short interest on the S&P500 — and that stock market peaks don’t see high levels of short interest. I’m sorry but the data clearly shows that sometimes short interest is […] Read the rest of this entry
The Fed’s FOMC meeting has wrapped up and a statement has been posted. A cursory read of the statement shows the Fed will begin tapering QE3 in January. It will reduce its mortgage bond purchases from $40B to $35B per month, and reduce its Treasury purchases from $45B to $40B per month. Here’s a link to the Fed’s statement. The greatest stock market bubble […] Read the rest of this entry
OK 1 more from this afternoon’s Greedometer newsletter….