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Monthly Archives: December 2013

Newsletter posted

This week’s Greedometer newsletter has been posted. The risk gauges are updated, but there’s nothing in the economic (free) section…. Best wishes in 2014  

The Greedometer bells are ringing.

No one rings a bell at stock market tops. However… The Greedometer strategic risk algorithm has registered the highest sustained readings over the past 3 months (15 year period of data). This week will likely see the highest reading ever. The best the Greedometer can do is identify periods of extreme risk to the S&P500 within approximately 3-months. The mini Greedometer tactical risk algorithm registered […] Read the rest of this entry »

See Greedometer for free next week: re-tweet

Want to see the Greedometer section in next week’s newsletter for free? Here’s how: Re-tweet the tweet I sent out this morning with an offer to view the Greedometer newsletter for free today. Re-tweet 2 of the other tweets from this morning. Use the hashtag  #Greedometer in these 3 tweets. Must happen today only (Dec 25th). Send me a note via the website contact […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter is free today. Merry Christmas.

The Greedometer and mini Greedometer sections of this week’s newsletter are viewable  to any account (even the free section only version). Today only. As always, access is not allowed to anyone working in the investment industry.   Merry Christmas  

Margin Debt: yet another new all-time high.

In yet another sign the stock market is wildly over-priced, NYSE margin debt (borrowing money “on margin” to make leveraged bets) reached a new all-time high in November. The NYSE released the margin debt data for November a few hours ago. Here’s the chart. (note: the data is corrected for the M1 money supply)   Nope. No bubble here.  

Artificially high GDP estimate helps Fed exit QE

The BEA raised its estimate of Q3 GDP to 4.1% this morning. Including this third estimate, here’s a look back at the past 14 years of BEA data (for Q3 estimates).  Each year shows the first, second, third estimates, and the most recent –typically a few years after the fact. The 4th data point in each year saw GDP lowered vs the 1st estimate […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Interest is high. Fuel for another rally? Not always….

I read an interesting article recently about how elevated short interest is frequently fuel for a short covering rally. The context was that as of now (Dec 19 2013) there are high levels of short interest on the S&P500 — and that stock market peaks don’t see high levels of short interest.  I’m sorry but the data clearly shows that sometimes short interest is […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fed QE3 taper to initiate. Stock market crash 2014.

The Fed’s FOMC meeting has wrapped up and a statement has been posted. A cursory read of the statement shows the Fed will begin tapering QE3 in January. It will reduce its mortgage bond purchases from $40B to $35B per month, and reduce its Treasury purchases from $45B to $40B per month. Here’s a link to the Fed’s statement. The greatest stock market bubble […] Read the rest of this entry »

Advisor Sentiment Obliterates previous records…again

OK 1 more from this afternoon’s Greedometer newsletter….

Interesting things in this week’s Greedometer Newsletter (out later today)

Lots of interesting things in this week’s Greedometer newsletter…. A look at the past 100 quarters of S&P500 earnings. Small business owners are grumpy. Q4 pre-earnings season is setting new records for sandbagging. Or is there something else foreshadowed? Will the Fed act like Lucy and pull the football away tomorrow (no QE taper)? The latest from the NY Fed data. The latest from […] Read the rest of this entry »