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Monthly Archives: November 2013

New QE3 taper microprudential support mechanism

In an effort to calm international markets with the prospect of an initiation next spring  – of a small and gradual reduction in the pace with which the Fed is spiking the punch bowl (QE3 taper) — Ben Bernanke indicated he would slowly begin a gradual process of moving the contents of his left pocket (loose change, tissues, car keys, and a movie ticket […] Read the rest of this entry »

Chicago Fed CFNAI: U.S. economy treading water

The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) for October was released a few minutes ago. The 3mo-avg of the CFNAI is very heavily correlated with GDP growth. Here’s a chart…. The October 3mo-avg reading poked its head above water after 7 straight months of negative readings. Seven straight readings in the 3mo CFNAI almost never happens unless the economy is in recession. According […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greed sets a new all-time high

  One of the 10 input parameters used in the Greedometer strategic risk gauge is NYSE margin debt. Actually I use margin debt corrected for growth in the M1 money supply.  Margin debt is money borrowed by speculators — and it tends to peak at or slightly before secular stock market peaks. The most recent data shows October margin debt setting a new all-time […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fear remains on holiday (don’t tell Janet)

  When an exceptionally high proportion of advisors agree, they’re usually wrong. This has been the case at many secular and interim stock market peaks. With that being said, last week saw the highest single week reading of advisor sentiment in the 10 years of data I have (on this data stream) — and likely the highest reading ever!  A ratio of 3.87 bulls/bears […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

Fun things in this week’s letter….           \    

Iron Maiden pension fund reform “Can I play with madness?”

  This morning I was propelling my 17yr old son through the ritual of getting to the school bus (always fun at 6am).  He’s a talented guitar player and likes a wide range of music, but is partial to ’80s rock and metal (safe to assume I had something to do with that).  Iron Maiden’s Can I play with Madness? was playing (that’s his music, […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

It’s up.  

Fun things in this week’s Greedometer Newsletter


Anatomy of pre-crash and early stage stock market crashes

  The Greedometer strategic risk gauge provided months of advance warning before recent U.S. stock market crashes. Yes, every one of the crashes were stopped at different stages of maturity by central bankers (when fiscal policy steroids ran dry).  For a tighter look at these crashes, the mini Greedometer tactical risk gauge is used. Here’s a brief comparison of what it looked like in […] Read the rest of this entry »

Gellin with Yellen: more bubble

The center of attention yesterday was the Janet Yellen Fed Chairman confirmation hearing. The upshot is she’s every bit as inclined to continue letting this historic bubble grow — just as Greenspan and Bernanke have done on their watches. The clincher was when she said she did not see any asset bubbles.  This too is the same story that Greenspan and Bernanke had/have gone […] Read the rest of this entry »