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Monthly Archives: September 2013

Investment Industry Fear: Don’t be wrong and alone.

Many investment professionals are afraid of being wrong and alone. One may be considered “wrong” in any or all of these situations: Stock markets rise considerably but client portfolios earn a markedly lower return. Or worse yet, client portfolios show losses during a stock market rally. Stock markets drop a modest amount but clients lose considerably more. Stock markets drop a lot, and so […] Read the rest of this entry »

Spot the bubble

  Over the past 2 years, the S&P500 has grown at 5X the speed of earnings growth. Therefore 80% of the reason for the stock market’s climb over the past 2 years may be attributable to P/E expansion alone.  Recently, that reached 25 (on a CAPE basis). Earnings on the above plot are trailing twelve month as-reported earnings. They’ve gone from $87 in Q3 […] Read the rest of this entry »

ECB will let stock markets crash in 2014

  I read in this morning’s FT, that banking regulators in Europe are essentially saying “The banking system will be solvent very soon. We mean it this time.“.   Granted, we heard the European banking system was fine shortly before some epic bank implosions and after bogus bank stress tests over the past few years.  Could it be this time is different?   (link to […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

It’s uploaded….  

Greedometer Update

The deluge of email and blog comments awaiting approval is prompting this update to the Greedometers publicly. The Greedometer algorithms capture risk metrics related to the S&P500. The gauges represent the output of an aggregation of those risks.  Together, the Greedometer gauges present a probability of a stock market crash initiating (and in the case of the mini Greedometer also provide insight into where […] Read the rest of this entry »

Bernanke kicks can.

An hour ago the Fed released its widely anticipated statement regarding plans for the QE asset purchase program.  It opted to continue the existing QE program unabated. A range of outcomes were possible. A decision to continue QE without any reduction (no taper at all) is the most extreme. It means: The Fed is all-in. It’s policies over the past 25+ years have been […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

This week’s letter has been posted. here’s the link  

Things we discuss in tomorrow’s Greedometer Newsletter

A picture is worth a thousand words….                    

Greedometer Newsletter posted

This week’s letter was uploaded….  

Attention Winners. Please sell your shares to the losers. (reprise)

  A few months ago I wrote a short note about how some people were able to sell high in 2007, while others were not.  It’s time for an update…. What we’re seeing so-far in 2013: Corporate insiders selling their shares at the fastest pace in many years – and potentially ever. (Mind you 2011 and 2012 come close. Insiders were apparently right to […] Read the rest of this entry »