Fee-Only Financial Planning in North Carolina

Contact Us at: (919) 228-6312

Monthly Archives: August 2013

Greedometer Newsletter Posted

This week’s letter has been posted. login here    

Greedometer Newsletter posted.

This week’s Greedometer newsletter has been posted. Among other things, we consider the latest economic data from the Chicago Fed….       But most importantly, we identify some key points in the Greedometer sections.    

Crash test dummies: a perspective on recent stock market crashes

  Here’s a graph of the S&P500 and Greedometer going back over 14.5 years. The message is clear: there is greater risk of catastrophic loss to the S&P500 than at any point since January 1999. We’ve experienced a series of crashes that have each been stopped by central bankers. Assuming there is sufficient credibility remaining in central banks and that further monetary policy moves […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer put/call ratio: Ominous Warning

  One of the input parameters to the Greedometer strategic risk gauge and the mini Greedometer tactical risk gauge (albeit with different amounts of averaging) is the Greedometer put/call ratio. This tracks the divergence in put/call ratios between the index containing the largest 100 U.S. stocks with the total U.S. stock market index. Granted it is an imperfect indicator (which is why it is […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer Newsletter posted: highest risk readings ever.

This week’s Greedometer newsletter has been posted.   Wow.   The gauges are showing the highest risk readings ever.      

Profit Margins Gone Wild

A snip from tomorrow’s Greedometer weekly newsletter… As-reported profit margins (Q2 2013) are likely to end up around 9.0% once all the data is in. With 14.5 years of data on hand, that is the highest as-reported profit margin seen. In fact, it is probably the highest as-reported profit margin from the S&P500 ever. FYI: Q1 saw an as-reported profit margin of 8.94% — […] Read the rest of this entry »

Incomplete analysis ticks me off

  On a popular investment website, there is a posting implying investors should not be concerned when very high proportions of stocks are trading above their moving average (50day, 100day or 200 day). Out of respect for the other website I won’t reference it here. But I will comment. First, the data.  This chart shows the S&P500 index and its 50-day (blue), 100-day (red), […] Read the rest of this entry »

Greedometer: highest reading ever. Epic risk levels now apparent.

If you had to write a script for a long term stock market peak (the point where an epic protracted 2-year stock market crash would initiate), it would look like this…. The Greedometer strategic risk gauge is very likely to register the highest single-week reading ever this week (around 8200).  The gauge maxes-out at 8000. A reminder that stock market price is not an […] Read the rest of this entry »

China data: do you believe it?

Having posted an estimate for U.S. GDP yesterday, all eyes have since been on China’s July manufacturing data.  The Chinese government claims the manufacturing sector grew modestly in July, but the HSBC data suggests it actually continued to fall. The trend over the past 3.5 years continues — according to HSBC. Since the HSBC data is focussed on privately owned businesses, and the Chinese […] Read the rest of this entry »