Monthly Archives: July 2013
The BEA released it’s first estimate of Q2 2013 GDP (there are three in a row, followed by years of revisions). More importantly, the GDP calculation method was changed (happens every 5 years). Effectively, there’s a new method to calculating GDP that makes the economy look better. The upshot: real (inflation adjusted) Q2 GDP rose at an annualized +1.7% pace. real Q1 GDP was […] Read the rest of this entry
Here’s a link to this morning’s BNN interview regarding the Greedometer’s warning of a stock market crash in 2013-2014. BNN link
Hello Canada. I’m very pleased to be hosted by BNN on Wednesday (July 17 2013). I’ll be on The Street discussing the Greedometer, what it has been indicating so far in 2013, and how its readings resemble 2007 -but with even higher risk levels.
ECRI’s data for last week was released this morning. At +4.3 it shows an economy still growing, but the pace of growth is really begin to slow. I track the WLI and several other macroeconomic data streams (as you know). My forecast continues to be that the US economy enters recession in September. By then, the ECRI WLI (in black on the chart […] Read the rest of this entry
Wells Fargo announced Q2 earnings results. Not at all surprisingly, they beat sand-bagged earnings estimates. Revenue was $21.4B – essentially flat with the same quarter last year. This beat the consensus $21.2B estimate (barely). Earnings was $5.5B — up 19% from the same quarter last year. This translates to $0.98/share (up from $0.82/share last year). Consensus was $0.93/share. So what’s not to like? $1.0B […] Read the rest of this entry
One down, one to go. JP Morgan announced Q2 earnings results. Not at all surprisingly, they beat sand-bagged earnings estimates. Revenue was $26B –up 13% from the same quarter last year. This beat the consensus $25B estimate. Earnings was $6.5B — up 31% from the same quarter last year. This translates to $1.60/share (up from $1.21/share last year). Consensus was $1.45/share. So what’s not […] Read the rest of this entry
There have been a lot of questions and comments, so I’ll post this… The Greedometer strategic gauge is not impacted by what happened today. It moves too slow, and it has already done its job: provide months of advance warning prior to a crash (January-May). The mini Greedometer is faster moving and almost certainly will be impacted by today’s Ben-inspired short-covering rally. The data […] Read the rest of this entry