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Monthly Archives: June 2013

Maybe the ECB won’t come to the rescue this October

Because of the forecast generated by the Greedometer and mini Greedometer data, I expect a spreading and accelerating global stock market crash for the balance of 2013 and 2014 (beginning in mid July). This is the 7th Greedometer sequence since year 2000. All of the previous 6 were stopped by emergency fiscal and monetary policy measures. Maybe this one will too. The Fed’s most […] Read the rest of this entry »

Margin Debt: Sell the rally

This morning the NYSE released margin debt figures for May (What took so long? It’s June 27th?).  May 2013 margin debt was $377B — noticeably lower than the previous month –THE ALL TIME PEAK- for margin debt.  And I have to say, I was expecting a slightly higher figure –something in the $390B range.  But $377B works very nicely indeed. As you know, there’s […] Read the rest of this entry »

Q1 GDP (3rd estimate)

  At the beginning of the year I wrote that Q1 GDP would probably be 2%, but that the BEA would provide a first estimate of 3%. It’s first cut ended up being +2.5%. A month ago I wrote: “Earlier today saw the release of the BEA’s 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP. With more data available -especially from later in the quarter- the GDP […] Read the rest of this entry »

FREE TRIAL of Advanced Access Newsletter

  The Advanced Access Newsletter will have a 14-day Free Trial July 1 – 14.   The Advanced Access Newsletter contains: Free Section:  economic news, analysis, commentary.  Greedometer Section:  Greedometer reading, sequence, and analysis. Mini Greedometer Section: Mini Greedometer reading, sequence, estimated topline and baseline, analysis, S&P500 forecast (for the balance of 2013). July is going to be pivotal, so it’s an appropriate time […] Read the rest of this entry »

What’s Up with MUB?

Did anyone catch MUB today?  I-Shares Muni Bond ETF (MUB) had a wild ride this afternoon. It’s not like this is thinly-traded.  More signs the bond market sell-off is done? Probably.

Bond sell-off overdone

I won’t comment on the sell-off in the junk bond space since junk bonds are heavily correlated with stocks.  However, the sell-off in the intermediate and long portion of the Treasury yield curve may be done for now. They were both very heavily oversold.  Judging from this chart, the US Tbond crash may have stopped a couple hours ago.   Maybe Tbond buyers are […] Read the rest of this entry »

Update: U.S. Recession forecast

  I rely on the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI), ECRI’s WLI, and some other factors in forecasting broad U.S. economic growth rates.  My latest forecast is for the U.S. economy to begin contracting in August (September at the latest). By the end of August, the CFNAI will likely show a running total of economic damage in the -4.0 neighborhood. The latest data […] Read the rest of this entry »

Fed QE taper causes Mini Greedometer Baseline to be steepened

  This week’s newsletter contains a discussion of the impact of the Fed’s beginning to back away from QE later this year.  This sort of surprise intrusion is unprecedented in that it threatens a reduction/removal of support (all previous surprises were announcements of new/more monetary candy — the opposite of this). The news is having an unprecedented impact on the gauges -especially the mini […] Read the rest of this entry »

Free Book Download

  Amazon gave me a 5-day quota of free download days. I’ve decided to use them up. The book (Greedometer 2.0 The Rats Are Jumping Ship) will be offered one final time for free: July 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Don’t have a kindle? No problem. Amazon has free e-readers for PC, Mac, i-pad, and other devices.

Greedometer Newsletter moved to Tuesdays

  In an effort to make the weekly letter (in particular, the Greedometer readings) more timely, it has been moved to Tuesdays (6pm east coast time is the target) — from Thursdays.  Weekly Greedometer data (input parameters) are almost always collected and applied by late in the day on Tuesday.