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Monthly Archives: April 2013

The stock market crash approaches. Margin Debt: all time record in sight for April

A few minutes ago the NYSE released the Margin Debt number for March: $379.5B. This month’s data (April) will be released near the end of May. My estimate for April is for $383B — eclipsing the all-time margin debt peak of $381B in July 2007 – 3 months before the US stock market peaked in October 2007 and began crashing (albeit less than 1% […] Read the rest of this entry »

BEA First Estimate of Q1 GDP

This morning the BEA announced they estimate Q1 GDP at: +2.5%. As you all know, the BEA provides three estimates for a previous quarter GDP, then update it again several years out. So don’t place a lot of weight in today’s estimate.  That being said, it is taken seriously by markets. I estimated the BEA would today provide a 3% GDP estimate, but my […] Read the rest of this entry »

Why the ECB won’t come to the rescue (with printing press) this summer

There’s an undeniable growing amount of economic data -not just in the U.S- indicating  the global recession is spreading.  This despite the best efforts of central banks. Currency printing presses are running at a near-frenzy pace, yet aggregate demand seems virtually unaffected.  As I wrote 2 years ago (www.noQE3.com) QE has the reached the point of diminishing returns and has become as productive as […] Read the rest of this entry »

FREE Greedometer Newsletter Advanced Access. (very limited time)

This week’s Greedometer Newsletter is out. It’s a doozy!   Plus…. Free View of Advanced Newsletter (limited time) The Greedometer and mini Greedometer sections of this week’s newsletter will be viewable to any / all accounts. The newsletter contains a very significant datapoint and supporting analysis.  I’m making it viewable to everyone with a login ID through Saturday April 27th only.  I’m doing this for 2 reasons: […] Read the rest of this entry »

Queue the Euphoria. Here comes the crash.

Queue the euphoria. The S&P500 is probably going to re-test 1595 this week, and if Friday’s Q1 GDP estimate is north of 3.0%, the S&P500 may even break 1600 for a few minutes. Crack open the champaign. It’s time to sell whatever’s left of your stocks and other risk assets to the same folks that bore the brunt of losses the last time things […] Read the rest of this entry »

Germany still in recession

The latest economic data out of Germany depicts a deepening recession. April’s preliminary (called a flash report) data shows: Manufacturing Output dropped to 47.9 – a 4-month low. The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.0 – 4-month low. The Services Activity index fell to 49.2 – a6-month low. The Composite Output index fell to 48.8 – a 6-month low. Germany may be one of the […] Read the rest of this entry »

China PMI rolls over…as expected

In last week’s China update blog posting, I had a chart showing the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) with April’s reading estimated at 51.0.  The April PMI was just announced. I was optimistic. Who knew?  A 50.5 showed up.   This means the manufacturing sector (in China) is likely still growing, but not by much. And that trend line is really not your friend.

June Recession call — still in tact

This morning saw the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index report –always of interest to me. The 3-month rolling average showed continued declines in activity on a national basis -as I’ve been predicting. By the end of July, we’ll have the June data. My forecast calls for a -3.5 running total for the 3-month moving average.  It was -2.42 when the US entered the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Update on Gold

Gold: Gold routinely (every few years) sheds 30% of its value. It is a volatile asset –which is why I don’t want to have a larger position than 10% of the asset base. The price (in USD) fell through a technical support level last week ($1520). This initiated volume selling which generated a feedback loop of more selling earlier this week. There are rumors […] Read the rest of this entry »

China Economic Update

Q1 GDP came in at +7.7%. Enviable indeed, but lower than the 8.0% anticipated, and lower than the Q4 7.9% rate. Continued slowing the in the Chinese economy will be felt in commodity exporter countries: Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, and Canada. Manufacturing continues to obey the same shallow declining trend line. April’s PMI data will be out next week (and in next week’s newsletter). Wednesday […] Read the rest of this entry »