Monthly Archives: February 2013
Greed is Back! One of the 9 input parameters to the Greedometer algorithm is Margin Debt used on the NYSE. This is the amount of money borrowed from broker-dealers to invest “on margin”. Margin debt exemplifies greed and is the inspiration for the Greedometer name because it peaks at secular stock market peaks. The all-time high margin debt figure was $381B in July 2007. […] Read the rest of this entry
WAKE UP CALL! Last week: Across all the US exchanges, insider share sales were nearly 9.5X the number of insider share buys. This is the highest ratio of shares sold to shares bought across all US exchanges — since the provider of this data began keeping records in 1998. Panic selling. On the NYSE alone, insider share sales were more than 10X the […] Read the rest of this entry
This morning the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its January National Activity Index — an excellent barometer of national economic health. The report made large upward revisions to previous estimates of November and December. So I expect an upward revision to Q4 2012 GDP from the previous -0.1% to something like +0.5% to be announced by the BEA at some point. As of […] Read the rest of this entry
Well what do you know? Wall Mart and Wall St. sandbagged a $1.57 earnings estimate (Wall Mart Q4 2012 earnings), choreographed a leak to lower expectations further, then managed to handily beat the sandbagged earnings -not by a modest 1 cent/share as I expected- but by 10 cents a share ($1.67). Wonders never cease.
There’s a tradition among corporate executives wherein shortly before earnings are announced they make comments expressing concern about earnings results. This causes the stock to drop a little bit, but then climb higher after (miraculously) announced earnings beat lowered expectations. Wall St. is complicit in the game. Analysts are uniformly bullish on future earnings, and gradually lower earnings expectations immediately prior to the announcement […] Read the rest of this entry