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Monthly Archives: September 2012

When the ‘Pros’ are wrong

  How do you know when the stock market (and for that matter, related risky assets) is due for a correction or crash? Answer: When there are far more bulls than bears. How do you know when the stock market (and for that matter, related risky assets) is bottoming? Answer: When there are far more bears than bulls. Yup. When the ‘market pros’ are […] Read the rest of this entry »

The rats are jumping ship (with alarming speed)!

  The rats were jumping ship at a near record pace last week. Insiders sold almost 7X as many shares as they bought. I think that’s the second highest weekly reading ever. Given that the previous 3 weeks saw a similar pace of nearly 6:1, we’ve got a trailing 4-week average of over 6 sells to buys. That’s got to be the second highest […] Read the rest of this entry »

Will Ben do The Full Draghi?

  What will Dr. Ben Bernanke announce tomorrow? By a slim margin, let me suggest the odds favor Ben doing The Full Draghi i.e., threatens to ‘do whatever it takes’ to help the economy and job market. But no QE3. Not until after November 6th at the earliest, and potentially not ever. (let me reference my letter from summer 2011 regarding the perils in […] Read the rest of this entry »

The Rats are jumping ship (still)

  The most recent reading of senior corporate executives shows a near panic selling of their stock at nearly 6X the rate they’re buying. This was the second week in a row with exceptionally high (near panic selling) levels. The average sell/buy ratio for August was approximately 5:1. That’s an extremely high reading for a month, suggesting there’s a secular (long term) US stock […] Read the rest of this entry »

I smell a rat.

  Point 1: A wave of selling in the last minute. Friday’s US stock market (S&P500) action saw 230m shares trade in the final minute. For perspective, that was 40% of the day’s trades — in the final minute. Other than the first and last minute, the day averaged approximately 800K trades/minute. It is all the more interesting when a large volume of trades cause […] Read the rest of this entry »