Fee-Only Financial Planning in North Carolina

Contact Us at: (919) 228-6312

Monthly Archives: February 2012

Short Economic Stories Feb 25 2012

In the US: The S&P500 took-out last year’s peak (April 2011: 1365). This places it back to May 2008 levels (and November 2006, December 2000, and July 1999). Once again, the latest bear market rally is a fallacy and won’t hold. Last week saw very low equity trade volumes — as has been the case for the past 3 months (just like what happened […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 17 2012

In the US: •For years I have commented that S&P500 profit margin is one of the best mean reverting series of economic data there is. The final stock market peaks of 2000 & 2007 coincided with turning points when profit margins began retreating from their peaks. •Notice -like all mean reverting series- the larger the area above the average (green area), the larger the […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 11 2012

  In the US: The latest economic false dawn resembles last year’s false dawn -and that of 2010- in so many ways: Stock markets are up — where they were in 2011, and within range of  the 2007 and 2000 levels.  Pundits in 2011 were forecasting 3-4% GDP growth. What we ended up with was annualized growth rates of 0.4% growth in Q1 2011 and 1.6% […] Read the rest of this entry »

Short Economic Stories Feb 4 2012

US-only this week….. 4Q 2011 Earnings season is roughly 58% done — as of Thursday’s most recent data from S&P. •57% of earnings results beat, 32% missed, 11% met lowered earnings expectations. Again, this is below the 65% average beat rate for sandbagged results. Why do I refer to earnings estimates as sandbagged ? Because there’s a pattern of earnings estimates being lowered as […] Read the rest of this entry »