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Monthly Archives: June 2010

The US will enter (double-dip) recession in late 2010

I have been working from the premise that once the federal government stimulus is removed, and once 2011 tax increases kick in, that our economy will enter the second leg of a recession -the double dip. In a broad sense, I arrive at this conclusion because I maintain that the pain of unwinding a quarter century of living beyond our means in a credit […] Read the rest of this entry »

What if Keynes was wrong ?

I won’t get into the gory details of economics, lest you skip reading these newsletters altogether. But consider please, the possibility that Keynes was wrong. There are several widely followed schools of thought / philosophies in the field of economics (called the dismal science was good reason).  John Maynard Keynes is arguably the best known economist and is named for an economic philosophy (Keynesian economics) that […] Read the rest of this entry »

May Unemployment Report. How 600,000 new jobs can be a disappointment.

As you know, the first Friday of every month has the release of the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on the previous month’s employment information.  Expectations were running very high. Stock markets have priced-in 3.5% GDP growth and a future of non-stop 300,000 new jobs per month as far as the eye can see. Recall that the US economy generates 125K new jobs per month just for “showing […] Read the rest of this entry »