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Monthly Archives: August 2009

The truth shall set you free…

Investors have always been manipulated by CFOs and CEOs. The existence of an “as-reported” and a “from operations” earnings speaks to this point in simplicity. Let’s face it, the CFO & CEO really know what’s going on since they run the business. Investors have to rely on reports and on accounting being legitimate. With that said, we are now being gamed by the federal […] Read the rest of this entry »

US Housing rebound: no.

We saw a “green shoot” in US home prices in the last week of July. Good! We should be seeing green shoots now – ASAP – because housing has lost 33% of its value in the past 3 years and needs to stop tanking to stem the burgeoning foreclosure rate (which is likely to peak in 1Q or 2Q 2010 at the earliest). Plus […] Read the rest of this entry »

US Unemployment

Unemployment continues to grow. We’ll get an updated report in early August.  It will likely continue to disappoint. Maybe this is the reason President Obama has not provided an update on his budget progress. Keep I mind that the total unemployed, under-employed, and those that have given up looking is in the 17% range and looks like it will hit 20% later this year. […] Read the rest of this entry »

China update

Has seen their stock market make explosive gains in the past 4 months. They have reasons for the growth, but are running out of near-term upside and increasingly are positioned for a correction. I mentioned in a quick note to clients a week ago that roughly 20% of the value of loans being made to Chinese individuals is going into the stock market. The […] Read the rest of this entry »

Stock market update

Global stock markets have rallied massively from their depths earlier this year but remain at levels 25-50% below their peaks. Current levels are pricing-in all sorts of good news that is not possible: -       3Q & 4Q GDP growth would need to show an historical increase in order to deliver on the promise of this stock market rally. This is not in the cards […] Read the rest of this entry »